President Donald Trump’s approval rating has been slipping as Americans sour on his handling of the economy. Is it one more divide between Wall Street and Main Street with stocks still sitting near record highs and corporate profits strong?
Not exactly, according to the results of the latest CNBC CFO Council Survey.
The C-suite and the public aren’t worlds apart on how President Trump has handled his job in the first year of his second term, according to the Q4 CNBC CFO Council Survey, but chief financial officers are still majority upbeat on the U.S. economy even as the labor market has weakened and consumers are stretched at lower-income levels. CFOs taking the survey cited consumer demand as the biggest risk to their business, echoing widespread concerns about Americans sustaining their level of spending, but the CFOs do not see an economic cliff ahead.
Over half of CFOs (59%) say there will not be a recession next year, and 73% of CFOs described themselves as optimistic on the economic outlook. Few CFOs, just two, predict a stock market correction of at least 10%, and no CFO sees a bear market ahead. But most CFOs do think stocks will be stuck in a trading range short of a new record high milestone for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with the index unable to break out above 50,000 in the foreseeable future, a reasonably cautious view after a double-digit gain year-to-date for stocks (16% in the case of the S&P 500).
Despite this positive stance on the economy and market, and despite getting the tax cuts extended that corporate America wanted, CFO views on the first year of the president’s second term are lukewarm, at best. The quarterly survey canvasses the views from a sample of chief financial officers on the CNBC CFO Council. The Q4 survey included 22 CFOs and was conducted from Dec. 1-Dec. 8.
Seventy-two percent of the CFOs who responded to the survey rated the president’s performance this year as fair (10) or poor (6). Only two CFOs described it as “excellent,” and another four CFOs describing Trump’s performance as “good.”
The issues expected to drag the president down did just that, with 14 CFOs describing his immigration policy as “poor” as it specifically relates to the conditions needed for their business to succeed, and 20 CFOs describing Trump’s trade policy in similar terms. Recent public polling on Trump’s immigration policy is mixed, with New York Times polling data showing that it remains an issue where the president is outperforming his overall approval level, but recent Gallup data showing a slip. Seven CFOs said his immigration policy has been excellent (2) or good (5), specifically in creating the business conditions they need to succeed, but more (9) described it as “poor.”
Trump’s Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent fares better than the president among CFOs, with 62% describing his performance as “good” or “excellent,” and only one CFO viewing Bessent’s handling of his job as “poor.”
On the key, looming issue of Trump’s plan to name a new Fed chair to replace Jerome Powell, most CFOs say they do not expect the move to have the positive impact that the president envisions. Seventy-seven percent are doubtful a new chair will make the Fed “more effective.”
Over half of CFOs expect inflation to remain above the Fed’s target into 2027, and while they anticipate rate cuts, they do not expect an aggressive rate cut cycle in 2026. CFOs see one to two cuts at most – excluding this week’s December FOMC meeting, at which a rate cut is expected – through the middle of next year. That is in line with current market expectations and distanced from the calls for more cuts from both Trump and his recent Federal Reserve Board of Governors and FOMC voting member addition Stephen Miran.
