February Nymex natural gas (NGG26) on Thursday closed down -0.118 (-3.35%),
Feb nat-gas prices tumbled on Thursday amid the outlook for far warmer-than-normal US temperatures, which is expected to curb heating demand for nat-gas. Forecaster WSI said Thursday that near-term forecasts show broad swaths of above-normal temperatures across the western and central US over the next week.
Don’t Miss a Day: From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity analysis.
Nat-gas prices fell on Thursday despite a bullish weekly EIA inventory report that showed nat-gas inventories fell -119 bcf last week, a larger draw than expectations of -113 bcf.
Higher US nat-gas production is bearish for prices. The EIA on December 9 raised its forecast for 2025 US nat-gas production to 107.74 bcf/day from its November estimate of 107.70 bcf/day. US nat-gas production is currently near a record high, with active US nat-gas rigs recently posting a 2-year high.
US (lower-48) dry gas production on Thursday was 111.0 bcf/day (+8.7% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Thursday was 88.0 bcf/day (-29.5% y/y), according to BNEF. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Thursday were 19.2 bcf/day (-1.5% w/w), according to BNEF.
As a supportive factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported on Wednesday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended January 3 rose +6.7% y/y to 82,732 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending January 3 rose +3.0% y/y to 4,306,606 GWh.
Thursday’s weekly EIA report was bullish for nat-gas prices, as nat-gas inventories for the week ended January 2 fell by -119 bcf, a larger draw than the market consensus of -13 bcf and much larger than the 5-year weekly average draw of -92 bcf. As of January 2, nat-gas inventories were down -3.5% y/y and were +1.0% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling ample nat-gas supplies. As of January 6, gas storage in Europe was 58% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 72% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported last Tuesday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending January 2 fell by -2 to 125 rigs, modestly below the 2.25-year high of 130 set on November 28. In the past year, the number of gas rigs has risen from the 4.5-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024.
On the date of publication,
did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.
For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy
here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
