New research helps to establish a causal link between geopolitical risk and households’ consumption decisions.
The authors – Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Dimitris Georgarakos, Geoff Kenny and Olivier Coibion – note that consumer confidence appears to have fallen around previous geopolitical shocks, such as Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990 and the result of the 2016 referendum that led to the UK’s departure from the European Union. However, they note that establishing a causal link is difficult.
They
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