Japan’s largest copper smelter has secured a rare reprieve in one of the tightest processing-fee environments the industry has ever seen.
According to media reports, Pan Pacific Copper has agreed with Lundin Mining (TSX:LUN,OTC Pink:LUNMF) to roll over treatment and refining charges for 2026 rather than cut them further.
People familiar with the deal said the commercial terms will remain broadly unchanged from this year, preserving a fee structure that has already fallen to historic lows.
TC/RCs, which are the fees miners pay smelters to process copper concentrate, usually move in tandem with global supply trends.
But the collapse this year has been so severe that spot charges have turned decisively negative. Many smelters warn the industry is near breaking point, especially in Asia, where Chinese refiners have built capacity far ahead of available concentrate.
The Lundin-PPC rollover diverges from the wide expectation that fees will fall further next year.
It follows a warning in October from Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) that it plans to abandon the traditional benchmark-setting system to help keep smelters afloat.
The arrangement also suggests miners with long-term industrial ties to Japan are willing to make commercial concessions to avoid further financial stress on their customers.
A spokesperson for Lundin declined to comment on the deal. PPC said it could not address the details of individual contracts.
For decades, annual copper contracts have been anchored by the first major deal of the year, often involving Chinese smelters since the 2010s.
But the system has become strained as the benchmark collapses and Chinese refiners resist setting a price that could turn negative. This year’s benchmark was set at a record low of US$21.25 a ton and 2.125 cents a pound.
The dynamics are particularly complex for Japanese smelters. PPC’s parent, JX Advanced Metals (OTC Pink:JXAMY,TSE:5016), holds a 30 percent stake in Lundin’s Caserones mine in Chile, giving both sides a long-term interest in keeping operations stable.
Last month, PPC announced a plan to merge its purchasing and sales functions with Mitsubishi Materials, a move aimed at strengthening Japan’s collective buying power in a challenging market.
The pressures are most acute in China, where this year’s negative TC/RCs have prompted emergency supply-side intervention.
The China Smelters Purchase Team, representing the country’s largest refiners, recently agreed to cut output by more than 10 percent next year to counter what it called “malignant competition.”
According to Shanghai Metals Market, the CSPT also established new oversight mechanisms to police procurement practices and blacklist suppliers deemed disruptive.
With Chinese smelters at an impasse over the 2026 benchmark, the industry enters the new year without clarity on where the market will settle.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
