Macro
CPPIB’s Amy Flikerski interviewed Hudson Bay’s Senior Economic Strategist Nouriel Roubini and Senior Markets and Derivatives Strategist Jason Cuttler. Roubini is uber bullish on multiple technological advances including AI, machine learning, generative AI, semiconductors, robotics, automation, biomedical research, synthetic technology, quantum computing, space exploration, defence and military advances. Together they form a Cambrian explosion that could accelerate US economic growth to 4% and propel the S&P 500 to 9,000. Cutter finds derivatives markets are under-pricing the equity upside, while Roubini judges that bond markets are under-pricing the interest rate upside and price downside in government bonds if economic growth does shift up to a higher trajectory.
Longs
Avi Fruchter’s Vintra Capital targets double digit returns from a concentrated book of high-quality long-term compounders at discounted valuations. Amsterdam-listed InPost has pioneered an e-commerce and logistics business model using Automated Parcel Machines (APMs) to cut out last mile delivery – reducing costs, thefts, queues and carbon emissions. InPost shares have halved in a year on fears of losing an Allegro contract worth 15% of revenues and on doubts about the UK roll-out that has involved a dilutive acquisition of Yodel. Fruchter expects InPost will retain Allegro, raise margins in the UK, and return to its historic valuation.
Alyx Wood’s Kernow Asset Management received SFN’s 2025 performance award in the UK equity long/short category and featured in our 2024 Tomorrow’s Titans report on rising star hedge fund managers. He finds insurance, financial services and holidays group Saga resonates with the UK’s wealthiest demographic – the over 50s – who will make up 60% of consumer spending by 2030. Saga can reinvest earnings at 20% returns, raise return on equity and resume dividends. Its valuation multiple should expand after exiting more volatile insurance underwriting and deleveraging towards net cash. Kernow envisage 400% upside.
