The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Monday closed up +0.16%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +0.17%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.08%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) rose +0.16%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) rose +0.09%.
Stock indexes recovered from early losses on Monday and settled higher, with the S&P 500 posting a new record high and the Nasdaq 100 posting a 2.25-month high. Strength in data storage companies and chip makers led the overall market higher on Monday. Also, mining stocks rallied on Monday after gold and silver prices soared to all-time highs.
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US stocks also garnered carryover support from rallies in other global bourses. European stocks rose to records on Monday as the Euro Stoxx 50 climbed to an all-time high. Also, Chinese stocks soared, with the Shanghai Composite rising to a 10.5-year high.
Stocks initially opened lower on Monday amid the Trump administration’s attacks on the Federal Reserve, which have heightened concerns about Fed independence. Stocks, government bonds, and the dollar came under pressure on Monday, and gold and silver soared to new all-time highs after Fed Chair Powell said the threat of a US criminal indictment was a consequence of a disagreement with the Trump administration over monetary policy. The 10-year T-note yield rose +2 bp to 4.19%.
Also, credit card companies and bank stocks retreated on Monday after President Trump said that credit-card lenders would be “in violation of the law” if they don’t cap interest rates at 10% for one year. He set a January 20 deadline for compliance.
Sunday evening, Fed Chair Powell said the Fed had been served grand jury subpoenas from the Justice Department late last Friday, threatening a criminal indictment related to his June congressional testimony on ongoing renovations of the Fed’s headquarters. Powell said, “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than the preferences of the president.”
The market’s focus this week will be on economic news and any fresh news on the Federal Reserve. On Tuesday, Dec CPI is expected to remain unchanged from Nov at +2.7% y/y and Dec core CPI is expected to edge higher to +2.7% y/y from +2.6% y/y in Nov. Also, Oct new home sales are expected to fall -10.6% m/m to 715,000. On Wednesday, Nov PPI final demand is expected to increase +2.7% y/y, and Nov core PPI is also expected to climb by +2.7% y/y. Also, Nov retail sales are expected to have increased +0.5% m/m and +0.4% m/m ex-autos. In addition, Dec existing home sales are expected to climb +2.2% m/m to 4.22 million. Finally, the Supreme Court on Wednesday may rule on the legality of President Trump’s tariffs. On Thursday, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to increase by +7,000 to 215,000. Also, the Jan Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions is expected to climb by +4.9 to 1.0. On Friday, Dec manufacturing production is expected to fall -0.1% m/m. Also, the Jan NAHB housing market index is expected to increase by +1 to 40.
Q4 earnings season is set to begin this week as bank earnings start to roll in on Tuesday. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4. Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.
The markets are discounting the odds at 5% for a -25 bp rate cut at the FOMC’s next meeting on January 27-28.
Overseas stock markets settled higher on Monday. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose to a new record high and closed up +0.31%. China’s Shanghai Composite rallied to a new 10.5-year high and closed up +1.09%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 was closed for the Coming-of-Age Day holiday.
Interest Rates
March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) on Monday closed down by -2.5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield rose +2.0 bp to 4.185%. Mar T-notes came under pressure on Monday, and the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 1-month high of 4.205% on concerns about Fed independence after the Federal Reserve was served subpoenas from the Justice Department threatening a criminal indictment tied to his June testimony on Fed headquarters renovations. Fed Chair Powell said the threat of criminal charges is the consequence of the Fed not going along with President Trump’s calls for lower interest rates. Also, rising inflation expectations are bearish for T-notes, as the 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 1.75-month high of 2.301% on Monday.
T-note recovered from their worst levels on Monday due to solid demand for the Treasury’s 3-year and 10-year T-note auctions. The bid-to-cover ratio on the $58 billion 3-year T-note auction was 2.65, better than the 10-auction average of 2.62, and the bid-to-cover ratio on the $49 billion 10-year T-note auction was 2.55, right on the 10-auction average.
European government bond yields moved lower on Monday. The 10-year German bund yield fell -2.2 bp to 2.841%. The 10-year UK gilt yield dropped to a 2.5-month low of 4.372% and finished down by -0.1 bp to 4.373%.
The Eurozone Jan Sentix investor confidence index rose by +4.4 to a 6-month high of -1.8, stronger than expectations of -5.0.
Swaps are discounting a 1% chance of a +25 bp rate hike by the ECB at its next policy meeting on February 5.
US Stock Movers
Data storage stocks and chip makers rallied on Monday, leading the overall market. Western Digital (WDC) closed up more than +6% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. Also, Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) closed up more than +5%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Broadcom (AVGO), KLA Corp (KLAC), and Applied Materials (AMAT) closed up more than +2%. In addition, Lam Research (LRCX) closed up more than +1%.
Mining stocks rallied on Monday as the price of gold and silver soared to new all-time highs. Hecla Mining (HL) closed up more than +8%, and Coeur Mining (CDE) closed up more than +5%. Also, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and Newmont Mining (NEM) closed up more than +3%, and Barrick Mining (B) closed up more than +2%.
Credit card companies and bank stocks slid on Monday after President Trump said credit-card lenders would be “in violation of the law” if they don’t cap interest rates at 10% for one year. Synchrony Financial (SYF) closed down more than -8% to lead losers in the S&P 500. Capital One Financial (COF) closed down more than -6% and American Express (AXP) closed down more than -4% to lead losers in the Dow Jones industrials. Also, Citigroup (C) closed down more than -3%, and Visa (V) closed down more than -2%. In addition, Mastercard (MA), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) closed down more than -1%.
ANI Pharmaceuticals (ANIP) closed up more than +10% after forecasting 2026 net revenue of $1.055 billion to $1.1185 billion, stronger than the consensus of $958.9 million.
Dexcom (DXCM) closed up more than +5% after reporting Q3 preliminary revenue of $1.26 billion, better than the consensus of $1.24 billion.
Albemarle (ALB) closed up more than +4% after Scotiabank upgraded the stock to sector outperform from sector perform with a price target of $200.
Walmart (WMT) closed up +3% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after Nasdaq Global Indexes said the stock will replace AstraZeneca Plc in the Nasdaq 100 Index beginning January 20.
Akamai Technologies (AKAM) closed up more than +3% after Morgan Stanley double-upgraded the stock to overweight from underweight with a price target of $115.
Amphenol (APH) closed up by more than +3% after Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight, with a price target of $156.
Comcast (CMCSA) closed up more than +2% after Bank of America Global Research upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $37.
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) closed up more than +1% after Citigroup Global Markets upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $235.
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed down more than -6% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after reporting preliminary Q4 sales of Amvuttra of $827 million, below the consensus of $848.5 million.
SLM Corp (SLM) closed down more than -3% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to underweight from neutral with a price target of $25.
Insulet (PODD) closed down more than -3% after Barclays downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight with a price target of $274.
Henry Schein (HSIC) closed down more than -2% after appointing Fedd Lowery as the next CEO to replace Stanley Begman, who earlier said he will retire effective March 2.
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) closed down more than -1% after the Wall Street Journal reported that a Senate committee investigating the company’s practices found it deployed “aggressive tactics” to collect payment-boosting diagnoses for its Medicare Advantage members.
Earnings Reports(1/13/2026)
Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK), Concentrix Corp (CNXC), Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL), JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM).
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